The global biofuels industry is entering a decisive decade. The newly released Biofuels Market Report 2026–2036 delivers a comprehensive, data-driven outlook designed to support strategic decision-making, product innovation, and growth planning across the value chain. Covering ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), the report analyzes market size, growth trajectories, regulatory drivers, technology pathways, and regional opportunities through 2036.

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 Market size and growth outlook

In 2025, the global biofuels market was valued at approximately USD 184–225 billion. The sector is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 6% from 2026 to 2035, reaching USD 270–326 billion by 2035. Growth is underpinned by blending mandates in road transport, rising demand for low-carbon fuels, and accelerating investment in next-generation biofuels.

The report extends analysis to 2036, showing continued expansion as advanced biofuels and aviation applications gain scale, offsetting plateauing growth in conventional, food-based fuels.

Policy and regulation: the primary growth engine

Government policy remains the single most powerful driver of biofuels demand. In the European Union, renewable energy directives cap food- and feed-based biofuels while prioritizing advanced biofuels. Sub-mandates for advanced fuels are set to rise steadily toward 9% by 2040, with strict sustainability certification across the value chain.

Similarly, in North America, renewable fuel standards and low-carbon fuel policies continue to anchor ethanol and renewable diesel demand while opening pathways for advanced technologies. These regulations provide market certainty, incentivize investment, and drive growth across biofuel segments.

Sustainable aviation fuel: fastest-growing segment

Among all biofuel segments, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) stands out as the fastest-growing. SAF accounted for less than 1% of global jet fuel consumption in 2024, but production is scaling rapidly, doubling to around 1 million tonnes in 2024 and projected to reach 2 million tonnes in 2025.

Market forecasts project exceptional growth rates. The global SAF market, valued at just over USD 1 billion in 2024, is expected to grow at a CAGR exceeding 50% through 2030, reaching nearly USD 16 billion by the end of the decade. Long-term aviation decarbonization commitments and blending mandates position SAF as a cornerstone of biofuels demand through 2036, despite near-term supply constraints.

Feedstocks and technology evolution

The report highlights a structural shift in feedstocks. While first-generation biofuels derived from corn, sugarcane, and vegetable oils continue to dominate volumes, growth increasingly comes from waste oils, agricultural residues, municipal solid waste, and lignocellulosic biomass. Advanced pathways such as hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA), alcohol-to-jet (ATJ), and gasification-based routes are seeing rapid adoption.

Long-term assessments indicate that up to 400 million tonnes of SAF could be produced by 2050 using sustainable feedstocks without inducing land-use change, supporting scalability well beyond 2036.

Regional dynamics and competitive landscape

North America and Europe remain the largest and most mature biofuels markets, driven by established mandates and incentives. Asia-Pacific is emerging as a critical growth frontier, supported by rising fuel demand, emerging blending policies, and export-oriented production capacity. China’s fuel quota system and expanding processing trade exemplify how regional policy decisions influence global biofuel trade flows.

Competition is intensifying as traditional fuel producers, agribusiness firms, and new technology players converge. Strategic partnerships, feedstock security, and long-term offtake agreements are becoming key differentiators.

Actionable insights for strategy and product development

The Biofuels Market Report 2026–2036 is designed not just as a forecast, but as a strategic tool. It provides:

• Quantitative market sizing and growth scenarios through 2036

• Segment-level analysis across ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel, and SAF

• Policy impact assessment across major regions

• Feedstock and technology benchmarking

• Strategic implications for investment, product development, and capacity planning

About the report

The Biofuels Market Report 2026–2036 delivers high-value insights for executives, strategists, investors, and product leaders navigating the global energy transition. By combining robust market data with policy and technology analysis, the report equips stakeholders to identify growth opportunities, manage risk, and build resilient, future-ready biofuels strategies.

For organizations seeking clarity in a rapidly evolving market, this report offers a decisive competitive advantage.

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